Association of Preoperative Growth Differentiation Factor-15 Concentrations and Postoperative Cardiovascular Events after Major Noncardiac Surgery.

BACKGROUND: The association between growth differentiation factor-15 concentrations and cardiovascular disease has been well described. The study hypothesis was that growth differentiation factor-15 may help cardiac risk stratification in noncardiac surgical patients, in addition to clinical evaluation. METHODS: The objective of the study was to determine whether preoperative serum growth differentiation factor-15 is associated with the composite primary outcome of myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery and vascular death at 30 days and can improve cardiac risk prediction in noncardiac surgery. This is a prospective cohort study of patients 45 yr or older having major noncardiac surgery. The association between preoperative growth differentiation factor-15 and the primary outcome was determined after adjusting for the Revised Cardiac Risk Index. Preoperative N-terminal-pro hormone brain natriuretic peptide was also added to compare predictive performance with growth differentiation factor-15. RESULTS: Between October 27, 2008, and October 30, 2013, a total of 5,238 patients were included who had preoperative growth differentiation factor-15 measured (median, 1,325; interquartile range, 880 to 2,132 pg/ml). The risk of myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery and vascular death was 99 of 1,705 (5.8%) for growth differentiation factor-15 less than 1,000 pg/ml, 161 of 1,332 (12.1%) for growth differentiation factor-15 1,000 to less than 1,500 pg/ml, 302 of 1476 (20.5%) for growth differentiation factor-15 1,500 to less than 3,000 pg/ml, and 247 of 725 (34.1%) for growth differentiation factor-15 concentrations 3,000 pg/ml or greater. Compared to patients who had growth differentiation factor-15 concentrations less than 1,000 pg/ml, the corresponding adjusted hazard ratio for each growth differentiation factor-15 category was 1.93 (95% CI, 1.50 to 2.48), 3.04 (95% CI, 2.41 to 3.84), and 4.8 (95% CI, 3.76 to 6.14), respectively. The addition of growth differentiation factor-15 improved cardiac risk classification by 30.1% (301 per 1,000 patients) compared to Revised Cardiac Risk Index alone. It also provided additional risk classification beyond the combination of preoperative N-terminal-pro hormone brain natriuretic peptide and Revised Cardiac Risk Index (16.1%; 161 per 1,000 patients). CONCLUSIONS: Growth differentiation factor-15 is strongly associated with 30-day risk of major cardiovascular events and significantly improved cardiac risk prediction in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery.

High-sensitivity Troponin I Predicts Major Cardiovascular Events after Non-Cardiac Surgery: A Vascular Events in Non-Cardiac Surgery Patients Cohort Evaluation (VISION) Substudy.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial injury after non-cardiac surgery (MINS), based on measurement of troponin T, is associated with perioperative major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). We therefore determined the high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) thresholds associated with 30 day MACE after non-cardiac surgery. METHODS: We performed a nested biobank cohort study of 4553 patients from the Vascular Events in Non-Cardiac Surgery Patients Cohort Evaluation (VISION) Study. We measured hsTnI (ADVIA Centaur® hsTnI assay) on postoperative days 1 to 3 in patients ≥45 years undergoing non-cardiac surgery. An iterative Cox proportional hazard model determined peak postoperative hsTnI thresholds independently associated with MACE (i.e., death, myocardial infarction occurring on postoperative day 4 or after, non-fatal cardiac arrest, or congestive heart failure) within 30 days after surgery. RESULTS: MACE occurred in 89/4545 (2.0%) patients. Peak hsTnI values of <75 ng/L, 75 ng/L to <1000 ng/L, and ≥1000 ng/L were associated with 1.2% (95% CI, 0.9-1.6), 7.1% (95% CI, 4.8-10.5), and 25.9% (95% CI, 16.3-38.4) MACE, respectively. Compared to peak hsTnI <75 ng/L, values 75 ng/L to <1000 ng/L and ≥1000 ng/L were associated with adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) of 4.53 (95% CI, 2.75-7.48) and 16.17 (95% CI, 8.70-30.07), respectively. MACE was observed in 9% of patients with peak hsTnI ≥75 ng/L vs 1% in patients with peak hsTnI <75 ng/L (aHR 5.76; 95% CI, 3.64-9.11). A peak hsTnI ≥75 ng/L was associated with MACE in the presence (aHR 9.35; 95% CI, 5.28-16.55) or absence (aHR 3.99; 95% CI, 2.19-7.25) of ischemic features of myocardial injury. CONCLUSION: A peak postoperative hsTnI ≥75 ng/L was associated with >5-fold increase in the risk of 30 days MACE compared to levels <75 ng/L. This threshold could be used for MINS diagnosis when the ADVIA Centaur hsTnI assay is used.Clinicaltrials.gov Registration Number: NCT00512109.

High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin I Thresholds to Identify Myocardial Injury After Noncardiac Surgery: A Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS) is common and associated with short- and long-term major cardiovascular events. Diagnostic criteria for MINS using Abbott high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) are unknown. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study of adults who had in-patient noncardiac surgery and measured hs-cTnI (Abbott Laboratories) on postoperative serum samples collected up to postoperative day 3. The objective was to determine prognostically important hs-cTnI thresholds associated with major cardiac events and death at 30 days after noncardiac surgery. Using Cox proportional iterative analyses, we determined peak postoperative hs-cTnI thresholds associated with the occurrence of the 30-day composite of major cardiac events (ie, nonfatal myocardial infarction after 3 postoperative days, cardiac arrest, and congestive heart failure) and death. RESULTS: Of 3953 included patients, 66 (1.7%) experienced the primary outcome at 30 days. Peak hs-cTnI values and associated incidence of major cardiac events and death were as follows: < 60 ng/L: 1.0% (95% CI 0.7-1.3); 60 to < 700 ng/L: 8.6% (5.6-13.0); and ≥ 700 ng/L: 27.3% (16.4-41.9). Compared with peak hs-cTnI < 60 ng/L, adjusted hazard ratios were 7.54 (95% CI% 4.27-13.32) for hs-cTnI values of 60 to < 700 ng/L and 26.87 (13.27-54.41) for values ≥ 700 ng/L. CONCLUSIONS: Hs-cTnI elevation within the first 3 days after noncardiac surgery independently predicts major cardiac events and death at 30 days. A postoperative hs-cTnI ≥ 60 ng/L was associated with a > 7-fold increase in the risk of subsequent major cardiac events and mortality at 30 days.

High-Sensitivity Troponin I after Cardiac Surgery and 30-Day Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Consensus recommendations regarding the threshold levels of cardiac troponin elevations for the definition of perioperative myocardial infarction and clinically important periprocedural myocardial injury in patients undergoing cardiac surgery range widely (from >10 times to ≥70 times the upper reference limit for the assay). Limited evidence is available to support these recommendations. METHODS: We undertook an international prospective cohort study involving patients 18 years of age or older who underwent cardiac surgery. High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I measurements (upper reference limit, 26 ng per liter) were obtained 3 to 12 hours after surgery and on days 1, 2, and 3 after surgery. We performed Cox analyses using a regression spline that explored the relationship between peak troponin measurements and 30-day mortality, adjusting for scores on the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (which estimates the risk of death after cardiac surgery on the basis of 18 variables, including age and sex). RESULTS: Of 13,862 patients included in the study, 296 (2.1%) died within 30 days after surgery. Among patients who underwent isolated coronary-artery bypass grafting or aortic-valve replacement or repair, the threshold troponin level, measured within 1 day after surgery, that was associated with an adjusted hazard ratio of more than 1.00 for death within 30 days was 5670 ng per liter (95% confidence interval [CI], 1045 to 8260), a level 218 times the upper reference limit. Among patients who underwent other cardiac surgery, the corresponding threshold troponin level was 12,981 ng per liter (95% CI, 2673 to 16,591), a level 499 times the upper reference limit. CONCLUSIONS: The levels of high-sensitivity troponin I after cardiac surgery that were associated with an increased risk of death within 30 days were substantially higher than levels currently recommended to define clinically important periprocedural myocardial injury. (Funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research and others; VISION Cardiac Surgery ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01842568.).

Bleeding Independently associated with Mortality after noncardiac Surgery (BIMS): an international prospective cohort study establishing diagnostic criteria and prognostic importance.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to establish diagnostic criteria for bleeding independently associated with mortality after noncardiac surgery (BIMS) defined as bleeding during or within 30 days after noncardiac surgery that is independently associated with mortality within 30 days of surgery, and to estimate the proportion of 30-day postoperative mortality potentially attributable to BIMS. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of participants ≥45 yr old having inpatient noncardiac surgery at 12 academic hospitals in eight countries between 2007 and 2011. Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the adjusted relationship between candidate diagnostic criteria for BIMS and all-cause mortality within 30 days of surgery. RESULTS: Of 16 079 participants, 2.0% (315) died and 36.1% (5810) met predefined screening criteria for bleeding. Based on independent association with 30-day mortality, BIMS was identified as bleeding leading to a postoperative haemoglobin <70 g L-1, transfusion of ≥1 unit of red blood cells, or that was judged to be the cause of death. Bleeding independently associated with mortality after noncardiac surgery occurred in 17.3% of patients (2782). Death occurred in 5.8% of patients with BIMS (161/2782), 1.3% (39/3028) who met bleeding screening criteria but not BIMS criteria, and 1.1% (115/10 269) without bleeding. BIMS was associated with mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.87; 95% confidence interval: 1.42-2.47). We estimated the proportion of 30-day postoperative deaths potentially attributable to BIMS to be 20.1-31.9%. CONCLUSIONS: Bleeding independently associated with mortality after noncardiac surgery (BIMS), defined as bleeding that leads to a postoperative haemoglobin <70 g L-1, blood transfusion, or that is judged to be the cause of death, is common and may account for a quarter of deaths after noncardiac surgery. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00512109.

Preoperative prediction of Bleeding Independently associated with Mortality after noncardiac Surgery (BIMS): an international prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic criteria for Bleeding Independently associated with Mortality after noncardiac Surgery (BIMS) have been defined as bleeding that leads to a postoperative haemoglobin <70 g L-1, leads to blood transfusion, or is judged to be the direct cause of death. Preoperative prediction guides for BIMS can facilitate informed consent and planning of perioperative care. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study of 16 079 participants aged ≥45 yr having inpatient noncardiac surgery at 12 academic hospitals in eight countries between 2007 and 2011, 17.3% (2782) experienced BIMS. An electronic risk calculator for BIMS was developed and internally validated by logistic regression with bootstrapping, and further simplified to a risk index. Decision curve analysis assessed the potential utility of each prediction guide compared with a strategy of identifying risk of BIMS based on preoperative haemoglobin <120 g L-1. RESULTS: With information about the type of surgery, preoperative haemoglobin, age, sex, functional status, kidney function, history of high-risk coronary artery disease, and active cancer, the risk calculator accurately predicted BIMS (bias-corrected C-statistic, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.837-0.852). A simplified index based on preoperative haemoglobin <120 g L-1, open surgery, and high-risk surgery also predicted BIMS, but less accurately (C-statistic, 0.787; 95% confidence interval, 0.779-0.796). Both prediction guides could improve decision making compared with knowledge of haemoglobin <120 g L-1 alone. CONCLUSIONS: BIMS, defined as bleeding that leads to a postoperative haemoglobin <70 g L-1, leads to blood transfusion, or that is judged to be the direct cause of death, can be predicted by a simple risk index before surgery. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00512109.

Preoperative N-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide and Cardiovascular Events After Noncardiac Surgery: A Cohort Study.

Background: Preliminary data suggest that preoperative N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) may improve risk prediction in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. Objective: To determine whether preoperative NT-proBNP has additional predictive value beyond a clinical risk score for the composite of vascular death and myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS) within 30 days after surgery. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: 16 hospitals in 9 countries. Patients: 10 402 patients aged 45 years or older having inpatient noncardiac surgery. Measurements: All patients had NT-proBNP levels measured before surgery and troponin T levels measured daily for up to 3 days after surgery. Results: In multivariable analyses, compared with preoperative NT-proBNP values less than 100 pg/mL (the reference group), those of 100 to less than 200 pg/mL, 200 to less than 1500 pg/mL, and 1500 pg/mL or greater were associated with adjusted hazard ratios of 2.27 (95% CI, 1.90 to 2.70), 3.63 (CI, 3.13 to 4.21), and 5.82 (CI, 4.81 to 7.05) and corresponding incidences of the primary outcome of 12.3% (226 of 1843), 20.8% (542 of 2608), and 37.5% (223 of 595), respectively. Adding NT-proBNP thresholds to clinical stratification (that is, the Revised Cardiac Risk Index [RCRI]) resulted in a net absolute reclassification improvement of 258 per 1000 patients. Preoperative NT-proBNP values were also statistically significantly associated with 30-day all-cause mortality (less than 100 pg/mL [incidence, 0.3%], 100 to less than 200 pg/mL [incidence, 0.7%], 200 to less than 1500 pg/mL [incidence, 1.4%], and 1500 pg/mL or greater [incidence, 4.0%]). Limitation: External validation of the identified NT-proBNP thresholds in other cohorts would reinforce our findings. Conclusion: Preoperative NT-proBNP is strongly associated with vascular death and MINS within 30 days after noncardiac surgery and improves cardiac risk prediction in addition to the RCRI. Primary Funding Source: Canadian Institutes of Health Research.